Archive for the ‘consensus’ Category

Chinese reserve…

Posted on timeJanuary 18th, 2007 by userPali Gap    flagNo Comments


Following on the post about Russian scepticism over Anthropogenic Global Warming, I see scientific doubts from China too…

“Even though the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to re-consider the trend of global climate changes”

Multi-scale analysis of global temperature changes and trend of a drop in temperature in the next 20 years, Lin Zhen-Shan and Sun Xian, The School of Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing, P. R. China, Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, July 2006

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The contrarian views of Pulkovo Observatory’s head of space research

Posted on timeJanuary 16th, 2007 by userPali Gap    flagNo Comments


In the context of global warming (“climate change”) we so often hear the mantras “the debate is now over” and the “overwhelming scientific consensus is blah blah“.

But there are plenty of scientists who don’t follow the supposed party line. One such is Habibullo Abdusamatov, the head of the space research laboratory at the St. Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory.

In an interview with the Russian News & Information Agency Dr Abdusamatov stated:

“Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy – almost throughout the last century – growth in its intensity. It is no secret that when they go up, temperatures in the world’s oceans trigger the emission of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. So the common view that man’s industrial activity is a deciding factor in global warming has emerged from a misinterpretation of cause and effect relations” [Jan 15 2007]

The point is not so much that he is right (though of course he may be). Rather it gives the lie to the idea that the men in white coats are of one mind on this (apart from a few big-oil-financed lackeys!)

Of course fanatical warmers are prone to respond to this kind of counter-example by saying “ah, when we say consensus we don’t mean by that that you can’t find academics with top qualifications in mathematics, physics, or whatever who disagree with us. Rather we mean that if you look at a select list of peer-reviewed journals, then you will find consensus. Oh, and by the way, we’ll tell you which are the ‘good’ journals in which to look for the consensus

I think this is a key battle line in the debate. The concept of “peer-reviewed consensus” is being put forward as lying at the heart of the methodology of science. It is essential for the warmers’ case that that are able to hold the line on this.

But can “peer-reviewed consensus” carry the weight that the warmers want to put on it?

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Politician-lite in weekend mismatch

Posted on timeOctober 30th, 2006 by userPali Gap    flagNo Comments


…and in the red corner we have a young ambitious British politician – Environment Secretary David Miliband:

“I think that the scientific debate has now closed on global warming, and the popular debate is closing as well” (Miliband on Sky News television).

And in the blue corner Richard Lindzen – Arthur P Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (bit of a weight mismatch eh?):

“Yes, there does appear to be warming, but the amount is hardly certain or indisputable. And the amount found does not appear that alarming. The alarm, I would suppose, comes from the notoriously inadequate climate models…for those who enthuse over the regulatory state, the possibility of regulating breathing must be like a dream come true. Under the circumstances, perhaps we should be suspicious of the dishonourable tradition of establishing the alleged truth of global warming by constant repetition, while ignoring reality” (Sunday Telegraph Oct 29 2006).

Continuing his disingenuous political posturing Miliband went on to harangue the United States as a “major emitter” like China and India that needs to get on board.

Get on board what?

Friends Of The Earth report that new Government energy figures show that under Miliband’s Labour government UK Carbon dioxide emissions rose in the first half of 2006, and are now at their highest level since Labour came to power.

And what of the European Union? No small “carbon footprint” there!

I see Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas is saying that CO2 emission plans he has received from 17 EU countries show that they are preparing to release some 15% more greenhouse gases in 2008-2012 than they did in 2005-2007.

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